Montreuil 2–1 Chauvigny: Result & Stats

Montreuil

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Chauvigny

A. Adel 81'

I. Kadded 39' (pen)

N. Ayadi 18'

12/21/2025

Coupe de France · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Montreuil33%

×Draw23%

Chauvigny44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontreuilExpected goals in this matchChauvigny

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.71

Montreuil

1.46

Chauvigny

1.71

Chauvigny creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

1.67

creates per match

1.75

1.67

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Montreuil

1.67

Chauvigny

1.75

allows per match

Montreuil

1.67

Chauvigny

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montreuil+0.00on par

Chauvigny+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montreuil ↓

Chauvigny →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Montreuil or draw

56%

Montreuil or Chauvigny

77%

Draw or Chauvigny

67%

Winning margin

Montreuil wins by 2+

15%

Chauvigny wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Montreuil 1+ goals

77%

Montreuil 2+ goals

43%

Montreuil 3+ goals

18%

Chauvigny 1+ goals

82%

Chauvigny 2+ goals

51%

Chauvigny 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Montreuil (draw refunded)

43%

Chauvigny (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montreuil at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Chauvigny away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montreuil attack 1.67 + Chauvigny defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Chauvigny attack 1.75 + Montreuil defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Montreuil scores more

33%

level

23%

Chauvigny scores more

44%

Chauvigny at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chauvigny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

N. Ayadi

Chauvigny · M

7.6

Match Events

1'

Logan Assignon

18'

N. Ayadi

26'

Ilyes Dos Santos Semedo

39'

I. KaddedPenalty

45+1'

Mamoudou Sow

45'

Imrel Soyhati

46'

H. Hays← Y. Blin

56'

M. Lounici← N. Muteba

65'

C. Zeoula← H. Kingue-Ekedy

67'

F. Diabate← O. Diallo

73'

El Anrif Mhadjiri

74'

A. Camara← B. Batta

81'

A. Adel↳ M. Khaouad

85'

L. Matignon← N. Ayadi

85'

D. Meyrieu← I. Soyhati

86'

M. Coulibaly← A. Adel

86'

M. Sangare← M. Khaouad

86'

S. Soumare← I. Kadded

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontreuilChauvigny

Overview

60%Possession40%

7Total Shots6

1Corners6

23Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots6

3On Target3

3Off Target1

1Blocked2

5Inside Box3

2Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

388Total Passes257

293Accurate Passes170

76%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

23Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1