Montreuil 2–4 Amiens: Result & Stats

Montreuil

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Amiens

I. Kadded 48'

A. Adel 1'

R. Lutin 46'

T. Averlant 29'

Y. Ikia Dimi 13'

Y. Rafii 8'

1/10/2026

Coupe de France · Round of 32Stade Auguste-Delaune

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Montreuil24%

×Draw23%

Amiens54%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontreuilExpected goals in this matchAmiens

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.89

Montreuil

1.19

Amiens

1.89

Amiens creates 59% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 18 away

1.67

creates per match

2.11

1.67

allows per match

0.72

creates per match

Montreuil

1.67

Amiens

2.11

allows per match

Montreuil

1.67

Amiens

0.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montreuil+0.00on par

Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montreuil ↓

Amiens →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Montreuil or draw

46%

Montreuil or Amiens

77%

Draw or Amiens

76%

Winning margin

Montreuil wins by 2+

9%

Amiens wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Montreuil 1+ goals

70%

Montreuil 2+ goals

33%

Montreuil 3+ goals

12%

Amiens 1+ goals

85%

Amiens 2+ goals

56%

Amiens 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Montreuil (draw refunded)

31%

Amiens (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montreuil at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Amiens away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montreuil attack 1.67 + Amiens defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.19

Amiens attack 2.11 + Montreuil defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Montreuil scores more

24%

level

23%

Amiens scores more

54%

Amiens at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Amiens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

T. Averlant

Amiens · M

8.2

Match Events

1'

A. Adel↳ I. Semedo

8'

Y. Rafii

13'

Y. Ikia Dimi↳ T. Averlant

29'

T. Averlant↳ Y. Rafii

31'

O. Diallo← B. Niakate

34'

El Anrif Mhadjiri

46'

R. Lutin↳ A. Leautey

48'

I. Kadded↳ A. Adel

65'

F. Diabate← S. Soumare

65'

M. Lounici← E. A. Mhadjiri

71'

Ilyes Dos Santos Semedo

73'

O. Aissat← R. Lutin

74'

Y. Serradj← I. Semedo

74'

N. Muteba← K. Toussi

74'

I. Daf← A. Lo

78'

Nkashama Muteba

80'

Nkashama Muteba

80'

Nkashama Muteba

81'

P. Paul← Y. Rafii

83'

Oscar Aïssat

87'

I. Abdelkrim← I. Fofana

88'

A. Drame← K. Kaiboue

90+3'

Yvan Ikia Dimi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontreuilAmiens

Overview

44%Possession56%

15Total Shots9

9Corners3

20Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots9

5On Target6

5Off Target3

5Blocked0

11Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

327Total Passes428

267Accurate Passes370

82%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

20Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Coupe de France: Montreuil 2–4 Amiens

Amiens beat Montreuil 4-2 in Coupe de France on January 10, 2026.

Goals: A. Adel (1'), Y. Rafii (8'), Y. Ikia Dimi (13'), T. Averlant (29'), R. Lutin (46'), I. Kadded (48').

Amiens controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stade Auguste-Delaune in Reims.

Montreuil vs Amiens — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Coupe de France: Montreuil 2–4 Amiens