Montreal Roses W vs Ottawa Rapid W

Montreal Roses W

Preview

23:00

Ottawa Rapid W

10/23/2026

Northern Super League

Big match

41%

Ottawa Rapid W

model favours

33%26%41%

Top-of-the-table clash — Montreal Roses W 1 vs Ottawa Rapid W 2

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Montreal Roses W33%

×Draw26%

Ottawa Rapid W41%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montreal Roses WExpected goals in this matchOttawa Rapid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.44

Montreal Roses W

1.27

Ottawa Rapid W

1.44

Ottawa Rapid W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.32

creates per match

1.83

1.05

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Montreal Roses W

1.32

Ottawa Rapid W

1.83

allows per match

Montreal Roses W

1.05

Ottawa Rapid W

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montreal Roses W+0.00on par

Ottawa Rapid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montreal Roses W ↓

Ottawa Rapid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Montreal Roses W or draw

59%

Montreal Roses W or Ottawa Rapid W

74%

Draw or Ottawa Rapid W

67%

Winning margin

Montreal Roses W wins by 2+

14%

Ottawa Rapid W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Montreal Roses W 1+ goals

72%

Montreal Roses W 2+ goals

36%

Montreal Roses W 3+ goals

14%

Ottawa Rapid W 1+ goals

76%

Ottawa Rapid W 2+ goals

42%

Ottawa Rapid W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Montreal Roses W (draw refunded)

45%

Ottawa Rapid W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montreal Roses W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Ottawa Rapid W away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montreal Roses W attack 1.32 + Ottawa Rapid W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ottawa Rapid W attack 1.83 + Montreal Roses W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Montreal Roses W scores more

33%

level

26%

Ottawa Rapid W scores more

41%

Ottawa Rapid W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ottawa Rapid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Ottawa Rapid W win just 33% against the top half (vs 71% against the bottom)
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

WWLDD

W

WWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff