Montreal Roses W 2–1 Ottawa Rapid W: Result & Stats

Montreal Roses W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ottawa Rapid W

T. Boychuk 70'

L. Abdu 52'

D. Pridham 40'

5/3/2025

Northern Super League · Round 1Stade Boréale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Montreal Roses W33%

×Draw26%

Ottawa Rapid W41%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montreal Roses WExpected goals in this matchOttawa Rapid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.44

Montreal Roses W

1.27

Ottawa Rapid W

1.44

Ottawa Rapid W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.32

creates per match

1.83

1.05

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Montreal Roses W

1.32

Ottawa Rapid W

1.83

allows per match

Montreal Roses W

1.05

Ottawa Rapid W

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montreal Roses W+0.00on par

Ottawa Rapid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montreal Roses W ↓

Ottawa Rapid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Montreal Roses W or draw

59%

Montreal Roses W or Ottawa Rapid W

74%

Draw or Ottawa Rapid W

67%

Winning margin

Montreal Roses W wins by 2+

14%

Ottawa Rapid W wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Montreal Roses W 1+ goals

72%

Montreal Roses W 2+ goals

36%

Montreal Roses W 3+ goals

14%

Ottawa Rapid W 1+ goals

76%

Ottawa Rapid W 2+ goals

42%

Ottawa Rapid W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Montreal Roses W (draw refunded)

45%

Ottawa Rapid W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montreal Roses W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Ottawa Rapid W away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montreal Roses W attack 1.32 + Ottawa Rapid W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ottawa Rapid W attack 1.83 + Montreal Roses W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Montreal Roses W scores more

33%

level

26%

Ottawa Rapid W scores more

41%

Ottawa Rapid W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ottawa Rapid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

D. Pridham

46'

M. Forbes← J. Fridlund

52'

L. Abdu↳ C. Bilbault

61'

J. Benati← Lee Min-A

70'

T. Boychuk↳ H. Whitaker

72'

S. Downing← K. Adamek

80'

L. Thibault← L. Abdu

80'

M. Ugarte← D. Pridham

86'

N. Lofthouse← Choo Hyo-Joo

90+2'

C. Monyard← N. Paquin

Montreal

Ottawa

1

Eriksson

2

Haaland

19

▼

Hyo-Joo

18

Scott

33

Harris

14

▼

Min-A

11

Scott

8

Gibson

3

▼

Adamek

7

▼

Fridlund

22

⚽

▼

1

2

17

3

A

Whitaker

5

Leas

18

A

Bilbault

6

Hess

12

⚽

Boychuk

99

⚽

▼

Abdu

20

Sauvé

7

▼

Paquin

Manager: R. Rositoiu

80'▲L. Thibault←▼L. Abdu

90+2'▲C. Monyard←▼N. Paquin

Montreal Roses W substitutes

19Thibault14Monyard22Laroche4Hill21Lachance23Roy8Bouchard13Chenail26Lambert

Manager: K. Søndergaard Pedersen

46'▲M. Forbes←▼J. Fridlund

61'▲J. Benati←▼Lee Min-A

72'▲S. Downing←▼K. Adamek

80'▲M. Ugarte←▼D. Pridham

86'▲N. Lofthouse←▼Choo Hyo-Joo

Ottawa Rapid W substitutes

21Forbes6Benati98Downing26Ugarte31Lofthouse4Smith30Dagenais13Okobi-Okeoghene