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Montreal Roses W vs Calgary Wild W — Northern Super League 2026

Montreal Roses W
Montreal Roses W
Preview
19:00
Calgary Wild W
Calgary Wild W
8/23/2026Northern Super LeagueNorthern Super League
Big match
53%
Montreal Roses W
model favours
53%24%22%
1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Montreal Roses W53%
×Draw24%
Calgary Wild W22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montreal Roses W
1.66
Calgary Wild W
0.97

Montreal Roses W creates 71% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

creates per match

Montreal Roses W
1.32
Calgary Wild W
0.88

allows per match

Montreal Roses W
1.05
Calgary Wild W
2.00

finishing

Montreal Roses W+0.00on par
Calgary Wild W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montreal Roses W ↓

Calgary Wild W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Montreal Roses W or draw
78%
Montreal Roses W or Calgary Wild W
76%
Draw or Calgary Wild W
47%

Winning margin

Montreal Roses W wins by 2+
29%
Calgary Wild W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Montreal Roses W 1+ goals
81%
Montreal Roses W 2+ goals
49%
Montreal Roses W 3+ goals
23%
Calgary Wild W 1+ goals
62%
Calgary Wild W 2+ goals
25%
Calgary Wild W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Montreal Roses W (draw refunded)
71%
Calgary Wild W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montreal Roses W at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Calgary Wild W away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montreal Roses W attack 1.32 + Calgary Wild W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.66

Calgary Wild W attack 0.88 + Montreal Roses W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Montreal Roses W scores more
53%
level
24%
Calgary Wild W scores more
22%

Montreal Roses W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Montreal Roses W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
WWLDD
W
LLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Montreal Roses W face Calgary Wild W (Northern Super League)

Northern Super League returns with Montreal Roses W hosting Calgary Wild W. Match starts August 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.