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Calgary Wild W vs Montreal Roses W — Northern Super League 2026

Calgary Wild W
Calgary Wild W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Montreal Roses W
Montreal Roses W
5/16/2026Northern Super LeagueNorthern Super League

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Calgary Wild W23%
×Draw24%
Montreal Roses W53%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calgary Wild W
1.05
Montreal Roses W
1.73

Montreal Roses W creates 65% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Calgary Wild W
1.05
Montreal Roses W
1.47

allows per match

Calgary Wild W
2.00
Montreal Roses W
1.05

finishing

Calgary Wild W+0.00on par
Montreal Roses W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calgary Wild W ↓

Montreal Roses W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Calgary Wild W or draw
47%
Calgary Wild W or Montreal Roses W
76%
Draw or Montreal Roses W
77%

Winning margin

Calgary Wild W wins by 2+
8%
Montreal Roses W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Calgary Wild W 1+ goals
65%
Calgary Wild W 2+ goals
28%
Calgary Wild W 3+ goals
9%
Montreal Roses W 1+ goals
82%
Montreal Roses W 2+ goals
52%
Montreal Roses W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Calgary Wild W (draw refunded)
30%
Montreal Roses W (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calgary Wild W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Montreal Roses W away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calgary Wild W attack 1.05 + Montreal Roses W defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Montreal Roses W attack 1.47 + Calgary Wild W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Calgary Wild W scores more
23%
level
24%
Montreal Roses W scores more
53%

Montreal Roses W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Montreal Roses W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calgary Wild W vs Montreal Roses W

Calgary Wild W and Montreal Roses W drew 2-2 in Northern Super League on May 16, 2026.