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Montpellier W vs Paris Saint Germain W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Montpellier W
Montpellier W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
3/22/2026Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 18Stade Bernard Gasset Terrain n°7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Montpellier W26%
×Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain W52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montpellier W
1.30
Paris Saint Germain W
1.94

Paris Saint Germain W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 86 away

creates per match

Montpellier W
1.79
Paris Saint Germain W
2.62

allows per match

Montpellier W
1.26
Paris Saint Germain W
0.81

finishing

Montpellier W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Montpellier W or draw
48%
Montpellier W or Paris Saint Germain W
78%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
74%

Winning margin

Montpellier W wins by 2+
11%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Montpellier W 1+ goals
73%
Montpellier W 2+ goals
37%
Montpellier W 3+ goals
14%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
86%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
58%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Montpellier W (draw refunded)
33%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier W at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.26 · 86 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 2.62, concedes 0.81 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier W attack 1.79 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.30

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.62 + Montpellier W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Montpellier W scores more
26%
level
22%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
52%

Paris Saint Germain W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Montpellier W 2 – 3 Paris Saint Germain W

Paris Saint Germain W beat Montpellier W 3-2 in Feminine Division 1 on March 22, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Bernard Gasset Terrain n°7 in Montpellier.