Montpellier 1–2 Auxerre: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Montpellier

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Auxerre

M. Sakho 39'

M. Autret 75' (pen)

Nuno da Costa 70'

8/21/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Montpellier51%

×Draw23%

Auxerre26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchAuxerre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.28

Montpellier

1.88

Auxerre

1.28

Montpellier creates 47% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 32 away

1.92

creates per match

0.84

1.72

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Montpellier

1.92

Auxerre

0.84

allows per match

Montpellier

1.72

Auxerre

1.83

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Montpellier+0.08on par

Auxerre+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

Auxerre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

74%

Montpellier or Auxerre

77%

Draw or Auxerre

49%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

29%

Auxerre wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

85%

Montpellier 2+ goals

56%

Montpellier 3+ goals

29%

Auxerre 1+ goals

72%

Auxerre 2+ goals

37%

Auxerre 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

66%

Auxerre (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.72 · 6 matches

Auxerre away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.83 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.92 + Auxerre defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.88

Auxerre attack 0.84 + Montpellier defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Montpellier scores more

51%

level

23%

Auxerre scores more

26%

Montpellier at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

P. Joly

Auxerre · D

8.0

Match Events

5'

Nuno Da Costa

39'

M. Sakho↳ A. Nordin

43'

Paul Joly

45+3'

A. Coeff← J. Jeanvier

46'

Khalil Fayad

46'

M. Niang← G. Hein

51'

M'Baye Niang

63'

F. Maouassa← E. Wahi

65'

Y. M'Changama← H. Sakhi

65'

R. Dugimont← G. Perrin

70'

Nuno da Costa↳ R. Dugimont

73'

Mamadou Sakho

75'

M. AutretPenalty

76'

E. Tchato← F. Sacko

82'

R. Raveloson← M. Autret

83'

B. Makouana← M. Sakho

83'

M. Estève← A. Nordin

84'

V. Germain← W. Khazri

88'

Nuno Da Costa

88'

Nuno Da Costa

90+4'

Teji Savanier

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierAuxerre

Overview

64%Possession36%

13Total Shots7

7Corners2

10Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots7

7On Target2

3Off Target4

3Blocked1

9Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

64%Possession36%

561Total Passes314

493Accurate Passes257

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards2

2Offsides0