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Montijo vs Valdivia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Montijo
Montijo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Valdivia
Valdivia
10/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 1Estadio Municipal Emilio Macarro Rodriguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Montijo65%
×Draw22%
Valdivia13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montijo
1.82
Valdivia
0.67

Montijo creates 172% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 29 away

creates per match

Montijo
1.37
Valdivia
0.55

allows per match

Montijo
0.79
Valdivia
2.28

finishing

Montijo+0.00on par
Valdivia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montijo ↓

Valdivia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Montijo or draw
87%
Montijo or Valdivia
78%
Draw or Valdivia
35%

Winning margin

Montijo wins by 2+
38%
Valdivia wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Montijo 1+ goals
84%
Montijo 2+ goals
54%
Montijo 3+ goals
27%
Valdivia 1+ goals
49%
Valdivia 2+ goals
15%
Valdivia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Montijo (draw refunded)
83%
Valdivia (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montijo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.79 · 62 matches

Valdivia away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montijo attack 1.37 + Valdivia defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.82

Valdivia attack 0.55 + Montijo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Montijo scores more
65%
level
22%
Valdivia scores more
13%

Montijo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Montijo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Montijo 3–0 Valdivia

Montijo beat Valdivia 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Emilio Macarro Rodriguez in Montijo.