Montijo 1–1 Trujillo: Result & Stats

Montijo

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Trujillo

9/29/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 4Estadio Municipal Emilio Macarro Rodriguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Montijo47%

×Draw28%

Trujillo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontijoExpected goals in this matchTrujillo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.91

Montijo

1.37

Trujillo

0.91

Montijo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 92 away

1.37

creates per match

1.03

0.79

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Montijo

1.37

Trujillo

1.03

allows per match

Montijo

0.79

Trujillo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montijo+0.00on par

Trujillo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montijo ↓

Trujillo →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Montijo or draw

75%

Montijo or Trujillo

72%

Draw or Trujillo

53%

Winning margin

Montijo wins by 2+

23%

Trujillo wins by 2+

Team goals

Montijo 1+ goals

75%

Montijo 2+ goals

40%

Montijo 3+ goals

16%

Trujillo 1+ goals

60%

Trujillo 2+ goals

23%

Trujillo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Montijo (draw refunded)

66%

Trujillo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montijo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.79 · 62 matches

Trujillo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montijo attack 1.37 + Trujillo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Trujillo attack 1.03 + Montijo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Montijo scores more

47%

level

28%

Trujillo scores more

25%

Montijo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Montijo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff