Montijo vs Miajadas: Preview & Prediction

Montijo

CANC

00:00

Miajadas

4/26/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 35Estadio Municipal Emilio Macarro Rodriguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Montijo52%

×Draw27%

Miajadas21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontijoExpected goals in this matchMiajadas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.78

Montijo

1.42

Miajadas

0.78

Montijo creates 82% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 57 away

1.37

creates per match

0.77

0.79

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Montijo

1.37

Miajadas

0.77

allows per match

Montijo

0.79

Miajadas

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montijo+0.00on par

Miajadas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montijo ↓

Miajadas →

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Montijo or draw

79%

Montijo or Miajadas

73%

Draw or Miajadas

48%

Winning margin

Montijo wins by 2+

26%

Miajadas wins by 2+

Team goals

Montijo 1+ goals

76%

Montijo 2+ goals

41%

Montijo 3+ goals

17%

Miajadas 1+ goals

54%

Miajadas 2+ goals

18%

Miajadas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Montijo (draw refunded)

72%

Miajadas (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montijo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.79 · 62 matches

Miajadas away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.46 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montijo attack 1.37 + Miajadas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Miajadas attack 0.77 + Montijo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Montijo scores more

52%

level

27%

Miajadas scores more

21%

Montijo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Montijo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Montijo vs Miajadas — Match Preview

Montijo face Miajadas on April 26, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Montijo host Miajadas at Estadio Municipal Emilio Macarro Rodriguez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Montijo vs Miajadas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Montijo vs Miajadas — Match Preview