Montijo 3–0 Lobón: Result & Stats

Montijo

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lobón

1/31/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 15Estadio Municipal Emilio Macarro Rodriguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Montijo65%

×Draw22%

Lobón13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontijoExpected goals in this matchLobón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.66

Montijo

1.82

Lobón

0.66

Montijo creates 176% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 15 away

1.37

creates per match

0.53

0.79

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Montijo

1.37

Lobón

0.53

allows per match

Montijo

0.79

Lobón

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montijo+0.00on par

Lobón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montijo ↓

Lobón →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Montijo or draw

87%

Montijo or Lobón

78%

Draw or Lobón

35%

Winning margin

Montijo wins by 2+

39%

Lobón wins by 2+

Team goals

Montijo 1+ goals

84%

Montijo 2+ goals

54%

Montijo 3+ goals

27%

Lobón 1+ goals

48%

Lobón 2+ goals

14%

Lobón 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Montijo (draw refunded)

83%

Lobón (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montijo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.79 · 62 matches

Lobón away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montijo attack 1.37 + Lobón defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.82

Lobón attack 0.53 + Montijo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Montijo scores more

65%

level

22%

Lobón scores more

13%

Montijo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Montijo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff