Montijo 1–2 Aceuchal: Result & Stats

Montijo

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Aceuchal

10/6/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 7Estadio Municipal Emilio Macarro Rodriguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Montijo52%

×Draw26%

Aceuchal22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontijoExpected goals in this matchAceuchal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.87

Montijo

1.49

Aceuchal

0.87

Montijo creates 71% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 40 away

1.37

creates per match

0.95

0.79

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Montijo

1.37

Aceuchal

0.95

allows per match

Montijo

0.79

Aceuchal

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montijo+0.00on par

Aceuchal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montijo ↓

Aceuchal →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Montijo or draw

78%

Montijo or Aceuchal

74%

Draw or Aceuchal

48%

Winning margin

Montijo wins by 2+

26%

Aceuchal wins by 2+

Team goals

Montijo 1+ goals

77%

Montijo 2+ goals

44%

Montijo 3+ goals

19%

Aceuchal 1+ goals

58%

Aceuchal 2+ goals

22%

Aceuchal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Montijo (draw refunded)

70%

Aceuchal (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montijo at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.79 · 62 matches

Aceuchal away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montijo attack 1.37 + Aceuchal defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Aceuchal attack 0.95 + Montijo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Montijo scores more

52%

level

26%

Aceuchal scores more

22%

Montijo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Montijo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff