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Monthey vs Echallens — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Monthey
Monthey
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Echallens
Echallens
9/7/20241. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Stade Philippe Pottier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Monthey39%
×Draw23%
Echallens38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monthey
1.67
Echallens
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 85 away

creates per match

Monthey
1.60
Echallens
1.74

allows per match

Monthey
1.58
Echallens
1.74

finishing

Monthey+0.00on par
Echallens+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monthey ↓

Echallens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Monthey or draw
62%
Monthey or Echallens
77%
Draw or Echallens
61%

Winning margin

Monthey wins by 2+
20%
Echallens wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Monthey 1+ goals
81%
Monthey 2+ goals
50%
Monthey 3+ goals
23%
Echallens 1+ goals
81%
Echallens 2+ goals
49%
Echallens 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Monthey (draw refunded)
50%
Echallens (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monthey at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.58 · 73 matches

Echallens away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.74 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monthey attack 1.60 + Echallens defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.67

Echallens attack 1.74 + Monthey defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Monthey scores more
39%
level
23%
Echallens scores more
38%

Monthey at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Monthey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Monthey 2–1 Echallens

Monthey beat Echallens 2-1 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Philippe Pottier in Monthey.