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Monterrey W vs Alajuelense W — CONCACAF W Champions Cup 2024

Monterrey W
Monterrey W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alajuelense W
Alajuelense W
10/18/2024CONCACAF W Champions CupCONCACAF W Champions Cup · Group Stage - 5Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Monterrey W97%
×Draw2%
Alajuelense W0%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterrey W
4.25
Alajuelense W
0.13

Monterrey W creates 3169% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Monterrey W
5.00
Alajuelense W
0.25

allows per match

Monterrey W
0.00
Alajuelense W
3.50

finishing

Monterrey W+0.00on par
Alajuelense W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%No
  • No88
  • Yes12

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey W ↓

Alajuelense W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–12%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–019%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–020%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (20%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Monterrey W or draw
100%
Monterrey W or Alajuelense W
98%
Draw or Alajuelense W
3%

Winning margin

Monterrey W wins by 2+
89%
Alajuelense W wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Monterrey W 1+ goals
98%
Monterrey W 2+ goals
91%
Monterrey W 3+ goals
76%
Alajuelense W 1+ goals
12%
Alajuelense W 2+ goals
1%
Alajuelense W 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Monterrey W (draw refunded)
100%
Alajuelense W (draw refunded)
0%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
11%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey W at home — creates 5.00, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Alajuelense W away — creates 0.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey W attack 5.00 + Alajuelense W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 4.25

Alajuelense W attack 0.25 + Monterrey W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 97%?"

Monterrey W scores more
97%
level
2%
Alajuelense W scores more
0%

Monterrey W at 97% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 97% does not mean "Monterrey W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monterrey W vs Alajuelense W

Monterrey W beat Alajuelense W 3-0 in CONCACAF W Champions Cup on October 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe.