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Monterrey vs Veracruz — Liga MX 2018

Monterrey
Monterrey
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Veracruz
Veracruz
11/4/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Monterrey70%
×Draw18%
Veracruz12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterrey
2.20
Veracruz
0.77

Monterrey creates 186% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 26 away

creates per match

Monterrey
1.75
Veracruz
0.58

allows per match

Monterrey
0.97
Veracruz
2.65

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par
Veracruz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Veracruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw
88%
Monterrey or Veracruz
82%
Draw or Veracruz
30%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+
46%
Veracruz wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals
89%
Monterrey 2+ goals
64%
Monterrey 3+ goals
37%
Veracruz 1+ goals
54%
Veracruz 2+ goals
18%
Veracruz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)
86%
Veracruz (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.97 · 157 matches

Veracruz away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.75 + Veracruz defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.20

Veracruz attack 0.58 + Monterrey defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Monterrey scores more
70%
level
18%
Veracruz scores more
12%

Monterrey at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: Monterrey 2–0 Veracruz

Monterrey beat Veracruz 2-0 in Liga MX on November 4, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA Bancomer in Monterrey.