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Monterrey vs Lobos Buap — Liga MX 2018

Monterrey
Monterrey
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lobos Buap
Lobos Buap
2/9/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 6Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Monterrey60%
×Draw22%
Lobos Buap18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterrey
1.88
Lobos Buap
0.93

Monterrey creates 102% more chances

Season form · 157 home / 17 away

creates per match

Monterrey
1.75
Lobos Buap
0.88

allows per match

Monterrey
0.97
Lobos Buap
2.00

finishing

Monterrey+0.00on par
Lobos Buap+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterrey ↓

Lobos Buap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Monterrey or draw
82%
Monterrey or Lobos Buap
78%
Draw or Lobos Buap
40%

Winning margin

Monterrey wins by 2+
35%
Lobos Buap wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Monterrey 1+ goals
85%
Monterrey 2+ goals
56%
Monterrey 3+ goals
29%
Lobos Buap 1+ goals
61%
Lobos Buap 2+ goals
24%
Lobos Buap 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Monterrey (draw refunded)
77%
Lobos Buap (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterrey at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.97 · 157 matches

Lobos Buap away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterrey attack 1.75 + Lobos Buap defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Lobos Buap attack 0.88 + Monterrey defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Monterrey scores more
60%
level
22%
Lobos Buap scores more
18%

Monterrey at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Monterrey will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monterrey vs Lobos Buap

Monterrey beat Lobos Buap 4-0 in Liga MX on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA Bancomer in Monterrey.