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Monterey Bay vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

Monterey Bay
Monterey Bay
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
4/30/2023USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 9Cardinale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Monterey Bay42%
×Draw26%
Rio Grande Valley32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterey Bay
1.47
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

Monterey Bay creates 18% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 93 away

creates per match

Monterey Bay
1.28
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

Monterey Bay
1.24
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

Monterey Bay+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterey Bay ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Monterey Bay or draw
68%
Monterey Bay or Rio Grande Valley
74%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
58%

Winning margin

Monterey Bay wins by 2+
20%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Monterey Bay 1+ goals
77%
Monterey Bay 2+ goals
43%
Monterey Bay 3+ goals
18%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
71%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
36%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Monterey Bay (draw refunded)
57%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterey Bay at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterey Bay attack 1.28 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.47

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Monterey Bay defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Monterey Bay scores more
42%
level
26%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
32%

Monterey Bay at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Monterey Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monterey Bay vs Rio Grande Valley

Monterey Bay and Rio Grande Valley drew 0-0 in USL Championship on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Cardinale Stadium in Seaside, California.