Monterey Bay 2–2 Rhode Island: Result & Stats

Monterey Bay

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Rhode Island

3/24/2024

USL Championship · Round 4Cardinale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Monterey Bay38%

×Draw26%

Rhode Island36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monterey BayExpected goals in this matchRhode Island

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.30

Monterey Bay

1.35

Rhode Island

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 44 away

1.28

creates per match

1.36

1.24

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Monterey Bay

1.28

Rhode Island

1.36

allows per match

Monterey Bay

1.24

Rhode Island

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Monterey Bay+0.00on par

Rhode Island+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterey Bay ↓

Rhode Island →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Monterey Bay or draw

64%

Monterey Bay or Rhode Island

74%

Draw or Rhode Island

62%

Winning margin

Monterey Bay wins by 2+

17%

Rhode Island wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Monterey Bay 1+ goals

74%

Monterey Bay 2+ goals

39%

Monterey Bay 3+ goals

15%

Rhode Island 1+ goals

73%

Rhode Island 2+ goals

37%

Rhode Island 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Monterey Bay (draw refunded)

52%

Rhode Island (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterey Bay at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

Rhode Island away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.43 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterey Bay attack 1.28 + Rhode Island defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Rhode Island attack 1.36 + Monterey Bay defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Monterey Bay scores more

38%

level

26%

Rhode Island scores more

36%

Monterey Bay at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Monterey Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff