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Monterey Bay vs El Farolito — US Open Cup 2018

Monterey Bay
Monterey Bay
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
El Farolito
El Farolito
4/2/2025US Open CupUS Open Cup · 2nd RoundCardinale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Monterey Bay50%
×Draw24%
El Farolito26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterey Bay
1.67
El Farolito
1.13

Monterey Bay creates 48% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Monterey Bay
2.00
El Farolito
1.50

allows per match

Monterey Bay
0.75
El Farolito
1.33

finishing

Monterey Bay+0.00on par
El Farolito+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterey Bay ↓

El Farolito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Monterey Bay or draw
74%
Monterey Bay or El Farolito
76%
Draw or El Farolito
50%

Winning margin

Monterey Bay wins by 2+
27%
El Farolito wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Monterey Bay 1+ goals
81%
Monterey Bay 2+ goals
50%
Monterey Bay 3+ goals
23%
El Farolito 1+ goals
68%
El Farolito 2+ goals
31%
El Farolito 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Monterey Bay (draw refunded)
66%
El Farolito (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterey Bay at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

El Farolito away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterey Bay attack 2.00 + El Farolito defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

El Farolito attack 1.50 + Monterey Bay defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Monterey Bay scores more
50%
level
24%
El Farolito scores more
26%

Monterey Bay at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Monterey Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

US Open Cup: Monterey Bay 1–2 El Farolito

El Farolito beat Monterey Bay 2-1 in US Open Cup on April 2, 2025.

The match was played at Cardinale Stadium.