Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Monterey Bay II vs Project 51O — USL League Two 2026

Monterey Bay II
Monterey Bay II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Project 51O
Project 51O
7/15/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 15Cardinale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Monterey Bay II49%
×Draw22%
Project 51O29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monterey Bay II
1.96
Project 51O
1.48

Monterey Bay II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Monterey Bay II
1.93
Project 51O
1.75

allows per match

Monterey Bay II
1.20
Project 51O
2.00

finishing

Monterey Bay II+0.00on par
Project 51O+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monterey Bay II ↓

Project 51O →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Monterey Bay II or draw
71%
Monterey Bay II or Project 51O
78%
Draw or Project 51O
51%

Winning margin

Monterey Bay II wins by 2+
28%
Project 51O wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Monterey Bay II 1+ goals
86%
Monterey Bay II 2+ goals
58%
Monterey Bay II 3+ goals
31%
Project 51O 1+ goals
77%
Project 51O 2+ goals
43%
Project 51O 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Monterey Bay II (draw refunded)
62%
Project 51O (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monterey Bay II at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Project 51O away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monterey Bay II attack 1.93 + Project 51O defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Project 51O attack 1.75 + Monterey Bay II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Monterey Bay II scores more
49%
level
22%
Project 51O scores more
29%

Monterey Bay II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Monterey Bay II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Monterey Bay II vs Project 51O

Monterey Bay II beat Project 51O 3-0 in USL League Two on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Cardinale Stadium in Seaside, California.