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Montenegro W vs North Macedonia W — Friendlies Women 2026

Montenegro W
Montenegro W
FT
5 – 0
North Macedonia W
North Macedonia W
2/21/2021Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Trening kamp FSCG Stari Aerodrom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Montenegro W81%
×Draw13%
North Macedonia W6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montenegro W
2.65
North Macedonia W
0.59

Montenegro W creates 349% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Montenegro W
2.44
North Macedonia W
0.29

allows per match

Montenegro W
0.89
North Macedonia W
2.86

finishing

Montenegro W+0.00on par
North Macedonia W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro W ↓

North Macedonia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Montenegro W or draw
94%
Montenegro W or North Macedonia W
87%
Draw or North Macedonia W
19%

Winning margin

Montenegro W wins by 2+
59%
North Macedonia W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Montenegro W 1+ goals
93%
Montenegro W 2+ goals
74%
Montenegro W 3+ goals
48%
North Macedonia W 1+ goals
45%
North Macedonia W 2+ goals
12%
North Macedonia W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Montenegro W (draw refunded)
93%
North Macedonia W (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro W at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

North Macedonia W away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro W attack 2.44 + North Macedonia W defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.65

North Macedonia W attack 0.29 + Montenegro W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Montenegro W scores more
81%
level
13%
North Macedonia W scores more
6%

Montenegro W at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Montenegro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Montenegro W 5–0 North Macedonia W

Montenegro W beat North Macedonia W 5-0 in Friendlies Women on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Trening kamp FSCG Stari Aerodrom in Podgorica.