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Montenegro W vs Moldova W — Friendlies Women 2026

Montenegro W
Montenegro W
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Moldova W
Moldova W
N. Cakovic 84', 81'
J. Vujadinovic 79'
A. Kuc 64', 1'
S. Bulatovic 50' (pen)
I. Topal 60'
2/15/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Trening kamp FSCG Stari Aerodrom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Montenegro W75%
×Draw16%
Moldova W9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montenegro W
2.35
Moldova W
0.67

Montenegro W creates 251% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Montenegro W
2.44
Moldova W
0.45

allows per match

Montenegro W
0.89
Moldova W
2.27

finishing

Montenegro W+0.00on par
Moldova W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro W ↓

Moldova W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Montenegro W or draw
91%
Montenegro W or Moldova W
84%
Draw or Moldova W
25%

Winning margin

Montenegro W wins by 2+
51%
Moldova W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Montenegro W 1+ goals
90%
Montenegro W 2+ goals
68%
Montenegro W 3+ goals
41%
Moldova W 1+ goals
49%
Moldova W 2+ goals
15%
Moldova W 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Montenegro W (draw refunded)
89%
Moldova W (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro W at home — creates 2.44, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Moldova W away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro W attack 2.44 + Moldova W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.35

Moldova W attack 0.45 + Montenegro W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Montenegro W scores more
75%
level
16%
Moldova W scores more
9%

Montenegro W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Montenegro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
A. Kuc
50'
S. BulatovicPenalty
60'
I. Topal
62'
H. Bozic← H. Bozic
62'
S. Simonovic← S. Simonovic
63'
M. Radunovic← M. Radunovic
64'
A. Kuc
65'
N. Munteanu← E. Dumic
72'
V. Cojuhari← V. Cojuhari
72'
M. Catarau← M. Catarau
76'
A. Janjusevic← A. Janjusevic
79'
J. Vujadinovic
81'
T. Malesija← T. Malesija
81'
N. Cakovic← N. Cakovic
81'
N. Cakovic
84'
N. Cakovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montenegro W vs Moldova W

Montenegro W beat Moldova W 6-1 in Friendlies Women on February 15, 2023.

Goals: A. Kuc (1', 64'), S. Bulatovic (50' pen), I. Topal (60'), J. Vujadinovic (79'), N. Cakovic (81', 84').

The match was played at Trening kamp FSCG Stari Aerodrom in Podgorica.