Montenegro 1–2 Wales: Result & Stats

Montenegro

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Wales

D. Camaj 73'

H. Wilson 3'

K. Moore 1'

9/9/2024

UEFA Nations League · League B - 2Stadion Kraj Bistrice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Montenegro44%

×Draw28%

Wales28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontenegroExpected goals in this matchWales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.00

Montenegro

1.32

Wales

1.00

Montenegro creates 32% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.45

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Montenegro

1.45

Wales

1.00

allows per match

Montenegro

1.00

Wales

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montenegro+0.00on par

Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro ↓

Wales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Montenegro or draw

72%

Montenegro or Wales

72%

Draw or Wales

56%

Winning margin

Montenegro wins by 2+

20%

Wales wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Montenegro 1+ goals

73%

Montenegro 2+ goals

38%

Montenegro 3+ goals

15%

Wales 1+ goals

63%

Wales 2+ goals

26%

Wales 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Montenegro (draw refunded)

61%

Wales (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Wales away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro attack 1.45 + Wales defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Wales attack 1.00 + Montenegro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Montenegro scores more

44%

level

28%

Wales scores more

28%

Montenegro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Montenegro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

H. Wilson

Wales · F

8.9

Match Events

1'

K. Moore↳ H. Wilson

2'

Ethan Ampadu

3'

H. Wilson↳ N. Williams

43'

B. Johnson← C. Roberts

46'

49'

49'

51'

57'

61'

69'

M. Osmajić← M. Brnović

70'

M. Bakić← S. Mugoša

73'

D. Camaj↳ N. Krstović

74'

N. Eraković← S. Jovetić

74'

M. Vukčević← A. Marušić

77'

R. Radunović← A. Vukčević

80'

A. Ramsey← H. Wilson

80'

M. Harris← K. Moore

90+4'

Jordan James

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontenegroWales

Overview

50%Possession50%

22Total Shots10

12Corners5

17Fouls10

Shots

22Total Shots10

5On Target3

10Off Target6

7Blocked1

14Inside Box4

8Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

352Total Passes369

278Accurate Passes299

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls10

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0