Montenegro 0–2 Iceland: Result & Stats

Montenegro

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Iceland

Í. Jóhannesson 88'

O. Óskarsson 74'

11/16/2024

UEFA Nations League · League B - 5Stadion Kraj Bistrice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Montenegro64%

×Draw20%

Iceland16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontenegroExpected goals in this matchIceland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.96

Montenegro

2.13

Iceland

0.96

Montenegro creates 122% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.45

creates per match

0.91

1.00

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Montenegro

1.45

Iceland

0.91

allows per match

Montenegro

1.00

Iceland

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montenegro+0.00on par

Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro ↓

Iceland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Montenegro or draw

84%

Montenegro or Iceland

80%

Draw or Iceland

36%

Winning margin

Montenegro wins by 2+

40%

Iceland wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Montenegro 1+ goals

88%

Montenegro 2+ goals

63%

Montenegro 3+ goals

35%

Iceland 1+ goals

62%

Iceland 2+ goals

25%

Iceland 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Montenegro (draw refunded)

80%

Iceland (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Iceland away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro attack 1.45 + Iceland defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.13

Iceland attack 0.91 + Montenegro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Montenegro scores more

64%

level

20%

Iceland scores more

16%

Montenegro at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Montenegro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Í. Jóhannesson

Iceland · M

7.6

Match Events

20'

V. Pálsson← A. Gunnarsson

25'

Nikola ŠipčićGoal cancelled

43'

46'

57'

66'

66'

68'

M. Ellertsson← J. Þorsteinsson

68'

Í. Jóhannesson← S. Þórðarson

69'

S. Mugoša← D. Camaj

72'

Orri Steinn Óskarsson

73'

Igor Vujačić

73'

Andri Guðjohnsen

74'

S. Lončar← M. Bakić

74'

O. Óskarsson↳ M. Ellertsson

88'

Í. Jóhannesson↳ A. Guðjohnsen

90'

W. Willumsson← O. Óskarsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontenegroIceland

Overview

52%Possession48%

16Total Shots12

7Corners2

9Fouls7

Shots

16Total Shots12

3On Target3

10Off Target6

3Blocked3

11Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

52%Possession48%

384Total Passes376

283Accurate Passes264

74%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls7

4Yellow Cards3

5Offsides0