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Montenegro vs FYR Macedonia — Friendlies 2026

Montenegro
Montenegro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FYR Macedonia
FYR Macedonia
3/25/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Mardan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Montenegro51%
×Draw27%
FYR Macedonia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montenegro
1.40
FYR Macedonia
0.82

Montenegro creates 71% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Montenegro
1.40
FYR Macedonia
0.30

allows per match

Montenegro
1.33
FYR Macedonia
1.40

finishing

Montenegro+0.00on par
FYR Macedonia+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro ↓

FYR Macedonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Montenegro or draw
78%
Montenegro or FYR Macedonia
73%
Draw or FYR Macedonia
49%

Winning margin

Montenegro wins by 2+
25%
FYR Macedonia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Montenegro 1+ goals
75%
Montenegro 2+ goals
41%
Montenegro 3+ goals
17%
FYR Macedonia 1+ goals
56%
FYR Macedonia 2+ goals
20%
FYR Macedonia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Montenegro (draw refunded)
70%
FYR Macedonia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

FYR Macedonia away — creates 0.30, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro attack 1.40 + FYR Macedonia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

FYR Macedonia attack 0.30 + Montenegro defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Montenegro scores more
51%
level
27%
FYR Macedonia scores more
22%

Montenegro at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Montenegro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Montenegro 1–0 FYR Macedonia

Montenegro beat FYR Macedonia 1-0 in Friendlies on March 25, 2024.

The match was played at Mardan Stadyumu in Antalya.