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Montenegro vs Belarus — Friendlies 2026

Montenegro
Montenegro
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Belarus
Belarus
11/19/2019FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 2Stadion Pod Goricom (Podgorica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Montenegro30%
×Draw27%
Belarus43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montenegro
1.08
Belarus
1.34

Belarus creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

Montenegro
1.40
Belarus
1.35

allows per match

Montenegro
1.33
Belarus
0.76

finishing

Montenegro+0.00on par
Belarus+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro ↓

Belarus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Montenegro or draw
57%
Montenegro or Belarus
73%
Draw or Belarus
70%

Winning margin

Montenegro wins by 2+
12%
Belarus wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Montenegro 1+ goals
66%
Montenegro 2+ goals
29%
Montenegro 3+ goals
10%
Belarus 1+ goals
74%
Belarus 2+ goals
39%
Belarus 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Montenegro (draw refunded)
41%
Belarus (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Belarus away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro attack 1.40 + Belarus defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.08

Belarus attack 1.35 + Montenegro defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Montenegro scores more
30%
level
27%
Belarus scores more
43%

Belarus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Belarus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montenegro vs Belarus

Montenegro beat Belarus 2-0 in Friendlies on November 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Goricom (Podgorica).