Montenegro 2–2 Armenia: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Montenegro

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Armenia

Andrija Bulatovic 52'

Vasilije Adžić 5'

Eduard Spertsyan 81', 1'

6/9/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 2Stadion Gradski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Montenegro60%

×Draw20%

Armenia20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontenegroExpected goals in this matchArmenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.22

Montenegro

2.25

Armenia

1.22

Montenegro creates 84% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

1.40

creates per match

1.10

1.33

allows per match

3.10

creates per match

Montenegro

1.40

Armenia

1.10

allows per match

Montenegro

1.33

Armenia

3.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montenegro+0.00on par

Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro ↓

Armenia →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Montenegro or draw

80%

Montenegro or Armenia

80%

Draw or Armenia

40%

Winning margin

Montenegro wins by 2+

38%

Armenia wins by 2+

Team goals

Montenegro 1+ goals

89%

Montenegro 2+ goals

65%

Montenegro 3+ goals

39%

Armenia 1+ goals

70%

Armenia 2+ goals

34%

Armenia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Montenegro (draw refunded)

75%

Armenia (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montenegro at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Armenia away — creates 1.10, concedes 3.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro attack 1.40 + Armenia defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.25

Armenia attack 1.10 + Montenegro defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Montenegro scores more

60%

level

20%

Armenia scores more

20%

Montenegro at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Montenegro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Eduard Spertsyan

Vasilije Adžić↳ Marko Vukčević

52'

Andrija Bulatovic↳ Andrija Radulović

70'

Varazdat Haroyan

75'

Risto Radunović← Andrija Vukčević

75'

Stefan Lončar← Nikola Šipčić

78'

Edgar Grigoryan

78'

Edvin Kuč← Andrija Bulatovic

80'

Marko Vukčević

81'

Eduard Spertsyan

84'

Daniel Aghbalyan

90'

Artur Miranyan← Artur Serobyan

Montenegro4-2-3-1

Armenia4-1-4-1

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: Robert Prosinečki

75'▲Risto Radunović←▼Andrija Vukčević

75'▲Stefan Lončar←▼Nikola Šipčić

78'▲Edvin Kuč←▼Andrija Bulatovic

Montenegro substitutes

3Radunović19Lončar14Kuč12Petković1Nikić7Vešović16Gašević8Brnović10Jovetić

Manager: O. Petrakov

90'▲Artur Miranyan←▼Artur Serobyan

Armenia substitutes

18Miranyan1Nersesyan16Avagyan2Manukyan13Hovhannisyan19Hambardzumyan24Muradyan20Grigoryan6Muradyan11Harutyunyan14Manvelyan17Adoryan15Eloyan22Grigoryan

Friendlies: Montenegro 2–2 Armenia

Montenegro and Armenia drew 2-2 in Friendlies on June 9, 2025.

Goals: Eduard Spertsyan (1', 81'), Vasilije Adžić (5'), Andrija Bulatovic (52').

The match was played at Stadion Gradski in Nikšić.

Montenegro vs Armenia — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies: Montenegro 2–2 Armenia