Montenegro U19 0–3 Slovakia U19: Result & Stats

Montenegro U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Slovakia U19

S. Vlna 74'

S. Lusale 70'

D. Valko 26'

11/12/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Montenegro U1942%

×Draw24%

Slovakia U1934%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montenegro U19Expected goals in this matchSlovakia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.49

Montenegro U19

1.67

Slovakia U19

1.49

Montenegro U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

1.63

creates per match

1.10

1.88

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Montenegro U19

1.63

Slovakia U19

1.10

allows per match

Montenegro U19

1.88

Slovakia U19

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montenegro U19+0.00on par

Slovakia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro U19 ↓

Slovakia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Montenegro U19 or draw

66%

Montenegro U19 or Slovakia U19

76%

Draw or Slovakia U19

58%

Winning margin

Montenegro U19 wins by 2+

22%

Slovakia U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Montenegro U19 1+ goals

81%

Montenegro U19 2+ goals

50%

Montenegro U19 3+ goals

23%

Slovakia U19 1+ goals

77%

Slovakia U19 2+ goals

44%

Slovakia U19 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Montenegro U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Slovakia U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Slovakia U19 away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro U19 attack 1.63 + Slovakia U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67

Slovakia U19 attack 1.10 + Montenegro U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Montenegro U19 scores more

42%

level

24%

Slovakia U19 scores more

34%

Montenegro U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Montenegro U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

26'

44'

55'

57'

58'

L. Brajovic← I. Redzepagic

58'

D. Saranovic← P. Jaukovic

61'

M. Jovanovic

66'

M. Racic

69'

M. Konopka← M. Turansky

70'

S. Lusale

74'

S. Vlna

75'

D. Bukovsky← S. Lusale

75'

P. Baleja← S. Kovacik

77'

N. Balevic← P. Raznatovic

77'

O. Krajina← J. Roganovic

80'

N. Udvaros← M. Bacik

81'

F. Trello← K. Strucka

87'

N. Udvaros

Montenegro

Slovakia

1

Zajac

5

▼

19

2

13

15

▼

Bacik

6

▼

Strucka

10

⚽

Vlna

14

▼

Kovacik

9

⚽

Valko

7

⚽

▼

1

2

15

4

3

▼

Kojic

14

▼

Redzepagi

10

▼

Raznatovi

11

▼

Jaukovic

17

Jovanovic

7

Vlahovic

9

▼

Roganovic

Manager: Nenad Vukcevic

57'▲M. Racic←▼M. Kojic

58'▲L. Brajovic←▼I. Redzepagic

58'▲D. Saranovic←▼P. Jaukovic

77'▲N. Balevic←▼P. Raznatovic

77'▲O. Krajina←▼J. Roganovic

Montenegro U19 substitutes

12Minic5Martinovic6Popovic8Balevic16Brajovic18Saranovic19Krajina20Raicevic21Racic

Manager: M. Fabuš

69'▲M. Konopka←▼M. Turansky

75'▲D. Bukovsky←▼S. Lusale

75'▲P. Baleja←▼S. Kovacik

80'▲N. Udvaros←▼M. Bacik

81'▲F. Trello←▼K. Strucka

Slovakia U19 substitutes

12Kalanin3Konopka4Majer8Bukovsky11Trello16Balog17Baleja18Udvaros97Zulevic

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Montenegro U19 0–3 Slovakia U19

Slovakia U19 beat Montenegro U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 12, 2025.

Goals: D. Valko (26'), S. Lusale (70'), S. Vlna (74').

Montenegro U19 vs Slovakia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Montenegro U19 0–3 Slovakia U19