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Montenegro U19 vs Portugal U19 — Friendlies 2026

Montenegro U19
Montenegro U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Portugal U19
Portugal U19
Unknown 86'
Unknown 81', 49'
9/6/2025FriendliesFriendlies · FriendliesStadion Hajduk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Montenegro U1932%
×Draw19%
Portugal U1949%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montenegro U19
2.00
Portugal U19
2.50

Portugal U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Montenegro U19
1.00
Portugal U19
3.00

allows per match

Montenegro U19
2.00
Portugal U19
3.00

finishing

Montenegro U19+0.00on par
Portugal U19+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro U19 ↓

Portugal U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Montenegro U19 or draw
51%
Montenegro U19 or Portugal U19
81%
Draw or Portugal U19
68%

Winning margin

Montenegro U19 wins by 2+
16%
Portugal U19 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Montenegro U19 1+ goals
86%
Montenegro U19 2+ goals
59%
Montenegro U19 3+ goals
32%
Portugal U19 1+ goals
92%
Portugal U19 2+ goals
71%
Portugal U19 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Montenegro U19 (draw refunded)
39%
Portugal U19 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Portugal U19 away — creates 3.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro U19 attack 1.00 + Portugal U19 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Portugal U19 attack 3.00 + Montenegro U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Montenegro U19 scores more
32%
level
19%
Portugal U19 scores more
49%

Portugal U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Portugal U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
81'
86'
Montenegro
Portugal
Nenad Vukčević
Manager: Nenad Vukčević
Filipe Ramos
Manager: Filipe Ramos

Match Recap: Montenegro U19 vs Portugal U19

Portugal U19 beat Montenegro U19 2-1 in Friendlies on September 6, 2025.

Goals: ? (49', 81', 86').

The match was played at Stadion Hajduk in Kula.