Montenegro U19 3–2 Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

Montenegro U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

A. Kostić 88'

A. Camaj 5'

D. Vukanić 2'

K. Muharemović 79'

K. Alajbegović 66' (pen)

11/19/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 8Gipedo Archanes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Montenegro U1940%

×Draw23%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montenegro U19Expected goals in this matchBosnia-Herzegovina U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.58

Montenegro U19

1.67

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 14 away

1.63

creates per match

1.29

1.88

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Montenegro U19

1.63

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.29

allows per match

Montenegro U19

1.88

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montenegro U19+0.00on par

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro U19 ↓

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Montenegro U19 or draw

64%

Montenegro U19 or Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

77%

Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

60%

Winning margin

Montenegro U19 wins by 2+

20%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Montenegro U19 1+ goals

81%

Montenegro U19 2+ goals

50%

Montenegro U19 3+ goals

23%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1+ goals

79%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2+ goals

47%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Montenegro U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro U19 at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro U19 attack 1.63 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 attack 1.29 + Montenegro U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Montenegro U19 scores more

40%

level

23%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 scores more

36%

Montenegro U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Montenegro U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

D. Vukanić

5'

A. Camaj

23'

D. Cetkovic

23'

H. Redzic

25'

D. Cetkovic

25'

D. Cetkovic

46'

D. Markočević← A. Rizvič

46'

P. Đajić← J. Terzić

47'

K. Muharemović← A. Ibrišimović

60'

D. Šabić← A. Tiro

66'

K. AlajbegovićPenalty

70'

A. Kostić← F. Perović

76'

A. Karadžić← L. Maraš

79'

K. Muharemović

83'

F. Taraba

84'

L. Šekularac← D. Vukanić

84'

V. Vlahović← A. Camaj

84'

A. Lemable← A. Gojak

87'

K. Muharemovic

88'

A. Kostić

Montenegro

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1

Omerinovi

2

Taraba

3

▼

Terzić

6

▼

Ibrišimov

5

Redžić

11

▼

Rizvič

17

Beganović

16

▼

Gojak

10

⚽

Alajbegov

13

Marčetić

19

▼

1

2

5

4

3

▼

Maraš

17

⚽

▼

Vukanić

11

⚽

▼

16

8

9

19

▼

Perović

Manager: G. Perišić

70'▲A. Kostić←▼F. Perović

76'▲A. Karadžić←▼L. Maraš

84'▲L. Šekularac←▼D. Vukanić

84'▲V. Vlahović←▼A. Camaj

Montenegro U19 substitutes

7Kostić6Karadžić22Šekularac18Vlahović12Božinović14Martinović21Zlatičanin20Mijović

Manager: D. Orlović

46'▲D. Markočević←▼A. Rizvič

46'▲P. Đajić←▼J. Terzić

47'▲K. Muharemović←▼A. Ibrišimović

60'▲D. Šabić←▼A. Tiro

84'▲A. Lemable←▼A. Gojak

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 substitutes

9Markočević20Đajić4Muharemović18Šabić8Lemable15Karačić14Pajić12Mehić7Garčević