Montenegro U17 1–2 Scotland U17: Result & Stats

Montenegro U17

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Scotland U17

3/25/2023

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Cardiff International Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Montenegro U1734%

×Draw23%

Scotland U1743%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montenegro U17Expected goals in this matchScotland U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.71

Montenegro U17

1.50

Scotland U17

1.71

Scotland U17 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

1.20

creates per match

1.93

1.50

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Montenegro U17

1.20

Scotland U17

1.93

allows per match

Montenegro U17

1.50

Scotland U17

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montenegro U17+0.00on par

Scotland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro U17 ↓

Scotland U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Montenegro U17 or draw

57%

Montenegro U17 or Scotland U17

77%

Draw or Scotland U17

66%

Winning margin

Montenegro U17 wins by 2+

16%

Scotland U17 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Montenegro U17 1+ goals

78%

Montenegro U17 2+ goals

44%

Montenegro U17 3+ goals

19%

Scotland U17 1+ goals

82%

Scotland U17 2+ goals

51%

Scotland U17 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Montenegro U17 (draw refunded)

44%

Scotland U17 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro U17 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Scotland U17 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro U17 attack 1.20 + Scotland U17 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Scotland U17 attack 1.93 + Montenegro U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Montenegro U17 scores more

34%

level

23%

Scotland U17 scores more

43%

Scotland U17 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Scotland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff