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Montenegro U17 vs Iceland U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Montenegro U17
Montenegro U17
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Iceland U17
Iceland U17
3/22/2023UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Cardiff International Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Montenegro U1727%
×Draw23%
Iceland U1749%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montenegro U17
1.28
Iceland U17
1.79

Iceland U17 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Montenegro U17
1.20
Iceland U17
2.09

allows per match

Montenegro U17
1.50
Iceland U17
1.36

finishing

Montenegro U17+0.00on par
Iceland U17+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montenegro U17 ↓

Iceland U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Montenegro U17 or draw
51%
Montenegro U17 or Iceland U17
77%
Draw or Iceland U17
73%

Winning margin

Montenegro U17 wins by 2+
12%
Iceland U17 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Montenegro U17 1+ goals
72%
Montenegro U17 2+ goals
37%
Montenegro U17 3+ goals
14%
Iceland U17 1+ goals
83%
Iceland U17 2+ goals
53%
Iceland U17 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Montenegro U17 (draw refunded)
36%
Iceland U17 (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montenegro U17 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Iceland U17 away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montenegro U17 attack 1.20 + Iceland U17 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.28

Iceland U17 attack 2.09 + Montenegro U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Montenegro U17 scores more
27%
level
23%
Iceland U17 scores more
49%

Iceland U17 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Iceland U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montenegro U17 vs Iceland U17

Montenegro U17 and Iceland U17 drew 0-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on March 22, 2023.

The match was played at Cardiff International Sports Stadium in Caerdydd.