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Montehermoso vs Villafranca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Montehermoso
Montehermoso
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Villafranca
Villafranca
2/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 21Estadio de Fútbol Los Pintos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Montehermoso34%
×Draw26%
Villafranca40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montehermoso
1.25
Villafranca
1.40

Villafranca creates 12% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 81 away

creates per match

Montehermoso
1.24
Villafranca
1.16

allows per match

Montehermoso
1.63
Villafranca
1.27

finishing

Montehermoso+0.00on par
Villafranca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montehermoso ↓

Villafranca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Montehermoso or draw
60%
Montehermoso or Villafranca
74%
Draw or Villafranca
66%

Winning margin

Montehermoso wins by 2+
14%
Villafranca wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Montehermoso 1+ goals
71%
Montehermoso 2+ goals
36%
Montehermoso 3+ goals
13%
Villafranca 1+ goals
75%
Villafranca 2+ goals
41%
Villafranca 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Montehermoso (draw refunded)
45%
Villafranca (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montehermoso at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Villafranca away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montehermoso attack 1.24 + Villafranca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Villafranca attack 1.16 + Montehermoso defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Montehermoso scores more
34%
level
26%
Villafranca scores more
40%

Villafranca at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Villafranca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Montehermoso 1–1 Villafranca

Montehermoso and Villafranca drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Los Pintos in Aceituna.