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Montehermoso vs Jerez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Montehermoso
Montehermoso
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Jerez
Jerez
1/11/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 17Campo de Fútbol CP Montehermoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Montehermoso37%
×Draw25%
Jerez37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montehermoso
1.39
Jerez
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 107 away

creates per match

Montehermoso
1.24
Jerez
1.15

allows per match

Montehermoso
1.63
Jerez
1.54

finishing

Montehermoso+0.00on par
Jerez+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montehermoso ↓

Jerez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Montehermoso or draw
63%
Montehermoso or Jerez
75%
Draw or Jerez
63%

Winning margin

Montehermoso wins by 2+
17%
Jerez wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Montehermoso 1+ goals
75%
Montehermoso 2+ goals
40%
Montehermoso 3+ goals
16%
Jerez 1+ goals
75%
Jerez 2+ goals
40%
Jerez 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Montehermoso (draw refunded)
50%
Jerez (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montehermoso at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Jerez away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montehermoso attack 1.24 + Jerez defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Jerez attack 1.15 + Montehermoso defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Montehermoso scores more
37%
level
25%
Jerez scores more
37%

Montehermoso at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Montehermoso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Montehermoso 1–1 Jerez

Montehermoso and Jerez drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 11, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol CP Montehermoso in Montehermoso.