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Montehermoso vs Don Benito — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Montehermoso
Montehermoso
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Don Benito
Don Benito
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 17Campo de Fútbol CP Montehermoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Montehermoso21%
×Draw25%
Don Benito54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montehermoso
0.93
Don Benito
1.64

Don Benito creates 76% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 34 away

creates per match

Montehermoso
1.24
Don Benito
1.65

allows per match

Montehermoso
1.63
Don Benito
0.62

finishing

Montehermoso+0.00on par
Don Benito+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montehermoso ↓

Don Benito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Montehermoso or draw
46%
Montehermoso or Don Benito
75%
Draw or Don Benito
79%

Winning margin

Montehermoso wins by 2+
7%
Don Benito wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Montehermoso 1+ goals
61%
Montehermoso 2+ goals
24%
Montehermoso 3+ goals
7%
Don Benito 1+ goals
81%
Don Benito 2+ goals
49%
Don Benito 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Montehermoso (draw refunded)
28%
Don Benito (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montehermoso at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Don Benito away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.62 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montehermoso attack 1.24 + Don Benito defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.93

Don Benito attack 1.65 + Montehermoso defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Montehermoso scores more
21%
level
25%
Don Benito scores more
54%

Don Benito at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Don Benito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Montehermoso 1–4 Don Benito

Don Benito beat Montehermoso 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol CP Montehermoso in Montehermoso.