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Montehermoso vs Don Álvaro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Montehermoso
Montehermoso
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Don Álvaro
Don Álvaro
2/18/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 22Campo de Fútbol CP Montehermoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Montehermoso46%
×Draw25%
Don Álvaro29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montehermoso
1.56
Don Álvaro
1.17

Montehermoso creates 33% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 47 away

creates per match

Montehermoso
1.24
Don Álvaro
0.72

allows per match

Montehermoso
1.63
Don Álvaro
1.89

finishing

Montehermoso+0.00on par
Don Álvaro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montehermoso ↓

Don Álvaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Montehermoso or draw
71%
Montehermoso or Don Álvaro
75%
Draw or Don Álvaro
54%

Winning margin

Montehermoso wins by 2+
24%
Don Álvaro wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Montehermoso 1+ goals
79%
Montehermoso 2+ goals
46%
Montehermoso 3+ goals
21%
Don Álvaro 1+ goals
69%
Don Álvaro 2+ goals
33%
Don Álvaro 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Montehermoso (draw refunded)
62%
Don Álvaro (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montehermoso at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Don Álvaro away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.89 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montehermoso attack 1.24 + Don Álvaro defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.56

Don Álvaro attack 0.72 + Montehermoso defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Montehermoso scores more
46%
level
25%
Don Álvaro scores more
29%

Montehermoso at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Montehermoso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montehermoso vs Don Álvaro

Don Álvaro beat Montehermoso 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol CP Montehermoso in Montehermoso.