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Montehermoso vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Montehermoso
Montehermoso
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
4/5/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 29Campo de Fútbol CP Montehermoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Montehermoso47%
×Draw24%
Atlético Pueblonuevo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montehermoso
1.67
Atlético Pueblonuevo
1.24

Montehermoso creates 35% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 66 away

creates per match

Montehermoso
1.24
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

Montehermoso
1.63
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

Montehermoso+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montehermoso ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Montehermoso or draw
72%
Montehermoso or Atlético Pueblonuevo
76%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
53%

Winning margin

Montehermoso wins by 2+
25%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Montehermoso 1+ goals
81%
Montehermoso 2+ goals
50%
Montehermoso 3+ goals
23%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Montehermoso (draw refunded)
62%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montehermoso at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montehermoso attack 1.24 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.67

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + Montehermoso defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Montehermoso scores more
47%
level
24%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
28%

Montehermoso at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Montehermoso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14: Montehermoso 1–0 Atlético Pueblonuevo

Montehermoso beat Atlético Pueblonuevo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol CP Montehermoso in Montehermoso.