Montehermoso 1–4 Arroyo: Result & Stats

Montehermoso

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Arroyo

11/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 13Campo de Fútbol CP Montehermoso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Montehermoso38%

×Draw27%

Arroyo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontehermosoExpected goals in this matchArroyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.26

Montehermoso

1.31

Arroyo

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 90 away

1.24

creates per match

0.89

1.63

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Montehermoso

1.24

Arroyo

0.89

allows per match

Montehermoso

1.63

Arroyo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montehermoso+0.00on par

Arroyo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montehermoso ↓

Arroyo →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Montehermoso or draw

64%

Montehermoso or Arroyo

73%

Draw or Arroyo

62%

Winning margin

Montehermoso wins by 2+

17%

Arroyo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Montehermoso 1+ goals

73%

Montehermoso 2+ goals

38%

Montehermoso 3+ goals

14%

Arroyo 1+ goals

72%

Arroyo 2+ goals

36%

Arroyo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Montehermoso (draw refunded)

52%

Arroyo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montehermoso at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 49 matches

Arroyo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montehermoso attack 1.24 + Arroyo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.31

Arroyo attack 0.89 + Montehermoso defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Montehermoso scores more

38%

level

27%

Arroyo scores more

36%

Montehermoso at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Montehermoso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff