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Montego Bay United vs Lime Hall Academy — Premier League 2019

Montego Bay United
Montego Bay United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lime Hall Academy
Lime Hall Academy
1/17/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14WespoW Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Montego Bay United72%
×Draw17%
Lime Hall Academy10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montego Bay United
2.28
Lime Hall Academy
0.73

Montego Bay United creates 212% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 13 away

creates per match

Montego Bay United
1.71
Lime Hall Academy
0.38

allows per match

Montego Bay United
1.08
Lime Hall Academy
2.85

finishing

Montego Bay United+0.00on par
Lime Hall Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montego Bay United ↓

Lime Hall Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Montego Bay United or draw
90%
Montego Bay United or Lime Hall Academy
83%
Draw or Lime Hall Academy
28%

Winning margin

Montego Bay United wins by 2+
48%
Lime Hall Academy wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Montego Bay United 1+ goals
90%
Montego Bay United 2+ goals
66%
Montego Bay United 3+ goals
39%
Lime Hall Academy 1+ goals
52%
Lime Hall Academy 2+ goals
17%
Lime Hall Academy 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Montego Bay United (draw refunded)
87%
Lime Hall Academy (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montego Bay United at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.08 · 79 matches

Lime Hall Academy away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montego Bay United attack 1.71 + Lime Hall Academy defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.28

Lime Hall Academy attack 0.38 + Montego Bay United defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Montego Bay United scores more
72%
level
17%
Lime Hall Academy scores more
10%

Montego Bay United at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Montego Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Montego Bay United 3–0 Lime Hall Academy

Montego Bay United beat Lime Hall Academy 3-0 in Premier League on January 17, 2024.

The match was played at WespoW Park in Montego Bay.