Montego Bay United 1–1 Faulkland: Result & Stats

Montego Bay United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Faulkland

4/16/2023

Premier League · Round 23WespoW Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Montego Bay United62%

×Draw22%

Faulkland16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montego Bay UnitedExpected goals in this matchFaulkland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

0.85

Montego Bay United

1.90

Faulkland

0.85

Montego Bay United creates 124% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 13 away

1.71

creates per match

0.62

1.08

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Montego Bay United

1.71

Faulkland

0.62

allows per match

Montego Bay United

1.08

Faulkland

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montego Bay United+0.00on par

Faulkland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montego Bay United ↓

Faulkland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Montego Bay United or draw

84%

Montego Bay United or Faulkland

78%

Draw or Faulkland

38%

Winning margin

Montego Bay United wins by 2+

37%

Faulkland wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Montego Bay United 1+ goals

85%

Montego Bay United 2+ goals

56%

Montego Bay United 3+ goals

29%

Faulkland 1+ goals

57%

Faulkland 2+ goals

21%

Faulkland 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Montego Bay United (draw refunded)

79%

Faulkland (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montego Bay United at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.08 · 79 matches

Faulkland away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montego Bay United attack 1.71 + Faulkland defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.90

Faulkland attack 0.62 + Montego Bay United defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Montego Bay United scores more

62%

level

22%

Faulkland scores more

16%

Montego Bay United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Montego Bay United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff