Montedio Yamagata 0–2 Tokyo Verdy: Result & Stats

Montedio Yamagata

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tokyo Verdy

6/24/2023

J2 League · Round 22ND Soft Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Montedio Yamagata42%

×Draw26%

Tokyo Verdy32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montedio YamagataExpected goals in this matchTokyo Verdy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.21

Montedio Yamagata

1.42

Tokyo Verdy

1.21

Montedio Yamagata creates 17% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 130 away

1.58

creates per match

1.38

1.05

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Montedio Yamagata

1.58

Tokyo Verdy

1.38

allows per match

Montedio Yamagata

1.05

Tokyo Verdy

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montedio Yamagata ↓

Tokyo Verdy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Montedio Yamagata or draw

68%

Montedio Yamagata or Tokyo Verdy

74%

Draw or Tokyo Verdy

58%

Winning margin

Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+

20%

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals

76%

Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals

41%

Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals

17%

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals

70%

Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals

34%

Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)

57%

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montedio Yamagata at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.05 · 166 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.58 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.38 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Montedio Yamagata scores more

42%

level

26%

Tokyo Verdy scores more

32%

Montedio Yamagata at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Montedio Yamagata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff