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Montedio Yamagata vs Shimizu S-pulse — J2 League 2018

Montedio Yamagata
Montedio Yamagata
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
6/3/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 19ND Soft Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Montedio Yamagata38%
×Draw26%
Shimizu S-pulse36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montedio Yamagata
1.37
Shimizu S-pulse
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 166 home / 43 away

creates per match

Montedio Yamagata
1.58
Shimizu S-pulse
1.63

allows per match

Montedio Yamagata
1.05
Shimizu S-pulse
1.16

finishing

Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montedio Yamagata ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Montedio Yamagata or draw
64%
Montedio Yamagata or Shimizu S-pulse
74%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
62%

Winning margin

Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+
17%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals
75%
Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals
40%
Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals
16%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
74%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
39%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)
51%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montedio Yamagata at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.05 · 166 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.58 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.37

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.63 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Montedio Yamagata scores more
38%
level
26%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
36%

Montedio Yamagata at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Montedio Yamagata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Montedio Yamagata 2–1 Shimizu S-pulse

Montedio Yamagata beat Shimizu S-pulse 2-1 in J2 League on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at ND Soft Stadium in Tendo.