Montedio Yamagata 2–1 Fujieda MYFC: Result & Stats

Montedio Yamagata

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fujieda MYFC

11/29/2025

J2 League · Round 38ND Soft Stadium Yamagata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Montedio Yamagata50%

×Draw25%

Fujieda MYFC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montedio YamagataExpected goals in this matchFujieda MYFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.08

Montedio Yamagata

1.63

Fujieda MYFC

1.08

Montedio Yamagata creates 51% more chances

Season form · 166 home / 59 away

1.58

creates per match

1.12

1.05

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Montedio Yamagata

1.58

Fujieda MYFC

1.12

allows per match

Montedio Yamagata

1.05

Fujieda MYFC

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montedio Yamagata+0.00on par

Fujieda MYFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montedio Yamagata ↓

Fujieda MYFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Montedio Yamagata or draw

75%

Montedio Yamagata or Fujieda MYFC

75%

Draw or Fujieda MYFC

50%

Winning margin

Montedio Yamagata wins by 2+

26%

Fujieda MYFC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Montedio Yamagata 1+ goals

80%

Montedio Yamagata 2+ goals

48%

Montedio Yamagata 3+ goals

22%

Fujieda MYFC 1+ goals

66%

Fujieda MYFC 2+ goals

29%

Fujieda MYFC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Montedio Yamagata (draw refunded)

67%

Fujieda MYFC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montedio Yamagata at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.05 · 166 matches

Fujieda MYFC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.68 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montedio Yamagata attack 1.58 + Fujieda MYFC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.63

Fujieda MYFC attack 1.12 + Montedio Yamagata defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Montedio Yamagata scores more

50%

level

25%

Fujieda MYFC scores more

25%

Montedio Yamagata at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Montedio Yamagata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff