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Montecchio Maggiore vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montecchio Maggiore
Montecchio Maggiore
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
2/4/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 22Stadio G. Corsaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Montecchio Maggiore39%
×Draw28%
Virtus Bolzano33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montecchio Maggiore
1.24
Virtus Bolzano
1.13

Montecchio Maggiore creates 10% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 34 away

creates per match

Montecchio Maggiore
1.13
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Montecchio Maggiore
1.38
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecchio Maggiore ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Montecchio Maggiore or draw
67%
Montecchio Maggiore or Virtus Bolzano
72%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
61%

Winning margin

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+
17%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals
71%
Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals
35%
Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals
13%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
68%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
31%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)
54%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montecchio Maggiore at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.13 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Montecchio Maggiore scores more
39%
level
28%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
33%

Montecchio Maggiore at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Montecchio Maggiore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montecchio Maggiore vs Virtus Bolzano

Montecchio Maggiore beat Virtus Bolzano 3-2 in Serie D - Girone C on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio G. Corsaro in Montecchio Maggiore.