Montecchio Maggiore 0–1 Real Calepina

Montecchio Maggiore

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Calepina

1/11/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 21Stadio G. Corsaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Montecchio Maggiore36%

×Draw27%

Real Calepina37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montecchio MaggioreExpected goals in this matchReal Calepina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.25

Montecchio Maggiore

1.23

Real Calepina

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 19 away

1.13

creates per match

1.11

1.38

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Montecchio Maggiore

1.13

Real Calepina

1.11

allows per match

Montecchio Maggiore

1.38

Real Calepina

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Real Calepina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecchio Maggiore ↓

Real Calepina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Montecchio Maggiore or draw

63%

Montecchio Maggiore or Real Calepina

73%

Draw or Real Calepina

64%

Winning margin

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+

15%

Real Calepina wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals

71%

Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals

35%

Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals

13%

Real Calepina 1+ goals

71%

Real Calepina 2+ goals

36%

Real Calepina 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)

49%

Real Calepina (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montecchio Maggiore at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Real Calepina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.13 + Real Calepina defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Real Calepina attack 1.11 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Montecchio Maggiore scores more

36%

level

27%

Real Calepina scores more

37%

Real Calepina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Calepina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montecchio Maggiore vs Real Calepina

Real Calepina beat Montecchio Maggiore 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio G. Corsaro in Montecchio Maggiore.

Montecchio Maggiore vs Real Calepina — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Montecchio Maggiore vs Real Calepina