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Montecchio Maggiore vs Portogruaro — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montecchio Maggiore
Montecchio Maggiore
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Portogruaro
Portogruaro
R. Ejesi 90+2'
M. Zupperdoni 86'
L. Nicoloso 23'
10/15/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 6Stadio G. Corsaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Montecchio Maggiore43%
×Draw26%
Portogruaro31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montecchio Maggiore
1.42
Portogruaro
1.17

Montecchio Maggiore creates 21% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 70 away

creates per match

Montecchio Maggiore
1.13
Portogruaro
0.96

allows per match

Montecchio Maggiore
1.38
Portogruaro
1.71

finishing

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par
Portogruaro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecchio Maggiore ↓

Portogruaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Montecchio Maggiore or draw
69%
Montecchio Maggiore or Portogruaro
74%
Draw or Portogruaro
57%

Winning margin

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+
20%
Portogruaro wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals
76%
Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals
41%
Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals
17%
Portogruaro 1+ goals
69%
Portogruaro 2+ goals
33%
Portogruaro 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)
58%
Portogruaro (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montecchio Maggiore at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Portogruaro away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.13 + Portogruaro defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Portogruaro attack 0.96 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Montecchio Maggiore scores more
43%
level
26%
Portogruaro scores more
31%

Montecchio Maggiore at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Montecchio Maggiore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
L. Nicoloso
86'
M. Zupperdoni
90+2'
R. Ejesi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Montecchio Maggiore 0–3 Portogruaro

Portogruaro beat Montecchio Maggiore 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 15, 2023.

Goals: L. Nicoloso (23'), M. Zupperdoni (86'), R. Ejesi (90+2').

The match was played at Stadio G. Corsaro in Montecchio Maggiore.