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Montecchio Maggiore vs Clodiense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Montecchio Maggiore
Montecchio Maggiore
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Clodiense
Clodiense
1/29/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 21Stadio G. Corsaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Montecchio Maggiore28%
×Draw27%
Clodiense45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montecchio Maggiore
1.04
Clodiense
1.41

Clodiense creates 36% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 82 away

creates per match

Montecchio Maggiore
1.13
Clodiense
1.44

allows per match

Montecchio Maggiore
1.38
Clodiense
0.95

finishing

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par
Clodiense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecchio Maggiore ↓

Clodiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Montecchio Maggiore or draw
55%
Montecchio Maggiore or Clodiense
73%
Draw or Clodiense
72%

Winning margin

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+
10%
Clodiense wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals
65%
Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals
28%
Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals
9%
Clodiense 1+ goals
76%
Clodiense 2+ goals
41%
Clodiense 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)
38%
Clodiense (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montecchio Maggiore at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Clodiense away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.13 + Clodiense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.04

Clodiense attack 1.44 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Montecchio Maggiore scores more
28%
level
27%
Clodiense scores more
45%

Clodiense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Montecchio Maggiore 0–1 Clodiense

Clodiense beat Montecchio Maggiore 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on January 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio G. Corsaro in Montecchio Maggiore.