Montecchio Maggiore 1–1 Caravaggio: Result & Stats

Montecchio Maggiore

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Caravaggio

3/9/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 31Stadio G. Corsaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Montecchio Maggiore37%

×Draw27%

Caravaggio35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Montecchio MaggioreExpected goals in this matchCaravaggio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.21

Montecchio Maggiore

1.25

Caravaggio

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 19 away

1.13

creates per match

1.05

1.38

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Montecchio Maggiore

1.13

Caravaggio

1.05

allows per match

Montecchio Maggiore

1.38

Caravaggio

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Caravaggio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecchio Maggiore ↓

Caravaggio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Montecchio Maggiore or draw

65%

Montecchio Maggiore or Caravaggio

73%

Draw or Caravaggio

63%

Winning margin

Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+

16%

Caravaggio wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals

71%

Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals

36%

Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals

13%

Caravaggio 1+ goals

70%

Caravaggio 2+ goals

34%

Caravaggio 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)

51%

Caravaggio (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montecchio Maggiore at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 53 matches

Caravaggio away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.13 + Caravaggio defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Caravaggio attack 1.05 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Montecchio Maggiore scores more

37%

level

27%

Caravaggio scores more

35%

Montecchio Maggiore at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Montecchio Maggiore will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff