Montecasillas 1–1 Real Murcia II: Result & Stats

Montecasillas

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Murcia II

10/14/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 6Campo De Fútbol Montecasillas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montecasillas23%

×Draw23%

Real Murcia II54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontecasillasExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.85

Montecasillas

1.14

Real Murcia II

1.85

Real Murcia II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

1.12

creates per match

1.24

2.47

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Montecasillas

1.12

Real Murcia II

1.24

allows per match

Montecasillas

2.47

Real Murcia II

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montecasillas+0.00on par

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montecasillas ↓

Real Murcia II →

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Montecasillas or draw

46%

Montecasillas or Real Murcia II

77%

Draw or Real Murcia II

77%

Winning margin

Montecasillas wins by 2+

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Montecasillas 1+ goals

68%

Montecasillas 2+ goals

32%

Montecasillas 3+ goals

11%

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

84%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

55%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Montecasillas (draw refunded)

30%

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Montecasillas at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Montecasillas attack 1.12 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Montecasillas defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Montecasillas scores more

23%

level

23%

Real Murcia II scores more

54%

Real Murcia II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff